Subtopic Deep Dive

Predictors of Driving Cessation
Research Guide

What is Predictors of Driving Cessation?

Predictors of Driving Cessation identify demographic, health, visual, and cognitive factors that lead older adults to stop driving, based on longitudinal studies.

This subtopic examines factors like depressive symptoms, cataracts, dementia, and mobility restrictions precipitating driving cessation. Key studies include Marottoli et al. (1997) with 643 citations linking cessation to depression, and Owsley et al. (1999) with 565 citations on cataract impacts (over 20 papers total). Research uses prospective cohorts like New Haven EPESE.

Curated Papers

Key Challenges

Why It Matters

Predictors guide interventions to delay unsafe driving or premature cessation, preserving mobility and independence. Marottoli et al. (1997) show cessation doubles depressive symptoms risk, informing mental health screening. Owsley (2001) links contrast sensitivity loss to crash risk, supporting vision-targeted policies. Edwards et al. (2009) tie driving status to 3-year mortality, highlighting life quality impacts.

Key Research Challenges

Heterogeneous Predictor Effects

Factors like vision and cognition vary across populations, complicating generalizable models. Owsley et al. (1999) found cataracts restrict habits differently by severity. Ragland et al. (2004) identified medical and nonmedical reasons with inconsistent patterns.

Longitudinal Data Scarcity

Few studies track cessation trajectories over time. Marottoli et al. (1997) used EPESE cohort prospectively, but replication is limited. Edwards et al. (2009) analyzed 3-year mortality post-cessation, needing longer horizons.

Causal Inference Gaps

Distinguishing causation from correlation remains unresolved. Dubinsky et al. (2000) reviewed Alzheimer's driving risks with conflicting accident data. Iverson et al. (2010) updated parameters using Clinical Dementia Rating for risk prediction.

Essential Papers

Driving Cessation and Increased Depressive Symptoms: Prospective Evidence from the New Haven EPESE

Richard A. Marottoli, Carlos F. Mendes de Leon, Thomas A. Glass et al. · 1997 · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 643 citations

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the association between driving cessation and depressive symptoms among older drivers. Previous efforts in this area have focused on the facto...

Older Drivers and Cataract: Driving Habits and Crash Risk

Cynthia Owsley, Beth T. Stalvey, J.M. Wells et al. · 1999 · The Journals of Gerontology Series A · 565 citations

Older drivers with cataract experience a restriction in their driving mobility and a decrease in their safety on the road. These findings serve as a baseline for our ongoing study evaluating whethe...

Visual Risk Factors for Crash Involvement in Older Drivers With Cataract

Cynthia Owsley · 2001 · Archives of Ophthalmology · 378 citations

Severe contrast sensitivity impairment due to cataract elevates at-fault crash risk among older drivers, even when present in only 1 eye.

Transportation and Aging: A Research Agenda for Advancing Safe Mobility

Anne E. Dickerson, Lisa J. Molnar, David W. Eby et al. · 2007 · The Gerontologist · 315 citations

Abstract Purpose: We review what we currently know about older driver safety and mobility, and we highlight important research needs in a number of key areas that hold promise for achieving the saf...

Practice parameter: Risk of driving and Alzheimer’s disease (an evidence-based review) [RETIRED]

Richard Dubinsky, Anthony C. Stein, Kelly E. Lyons · 2000 · Neurology · 310 citations

Studies of automobile accident frequency among drivers with AD have yielded conflicting results about the risk of accidents. To develop a practice parameter regarding driving and AD the authors per...

Practice Parameter update: Evaluation and management of driving risk in dementia

Donald Iverson, Gary Gronseth, Mark A. Reger et al. · 2010 · Neurology · 264 citations

For patients with dementia, consider the following characteristics useful for identifying patients at increased risk for unsafe driving: the Clinical Dementia Rating scale (Level A), a caregiver's ...

Navigation and the Mobility of Older Drivers

Peter C. Burns · 1999 · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · 199 citations

This research highlights the need to have better navigational support for drivers, particularly elderly drivers. Improved roads signs and in-vehicle navigation aids are two solutions that might hel...

Reading Guide

Foundational Papers

Start with Marottoli et al. (1997, 643 citations) for cessation-depression link via EPESE; Owsley et al. (1999, 565 citations) for visual restrictions; Dickerson et al. (2007, 315 citations) for research agenda.

Recent Advances

Iverson et al. (2010, 264 citations) updates dementia driving parameters; Edwards et al. (2009, 185 citations) links status to mortality; Böcker et al. (2016, 188 citations) on elderly mode choices.

Core Methods

Prospective cohort analysis (EPESE); contrast sensitivity testing (Owsley, 2001); Clinical Dementia Rating scales (Iverson et al., 2010); logistic regression for predictors (Ragland et al., 2004).

How PapersFlow Helps You Research Predictors of Driving Cessation

Discover & Search

Research Agent uses searchPapers('predictors driving cessation older adults') to retrieve Marottoli et al. (1997), then citationGraph to map 643 citing papers, and findSimilarPapers for vision studies like Owsley (2001). exaSearch uncovers cohort-specific results from EPESE.

Analyze & Verify

Analysis Agent applies readPaperContent on Marottoli et al. (1997) abstracts, verifyResponse (CoVe) to check cessation-depression links against cohorts, and runPythonAnalysis for hazard ratios via pandas on extracted tables. GRADE grading scores evidence from prospective designs as high.

Synthesize & Write

Synthesis Agent detects gaps in dementia predictors post-Iverson et al. (2010), flags contradictions between Dubinsky (2000) and newer parameters. Writing Agent uses latexEditText for methods sections, latexSyncCitations for 10+ papers, and latexCompile for policy reports.

Use Cases

"Extract survival curves from driving cessation cohorts and plot hazard ratios"

Research Agent → searchPapers → Analysis Agent → runPythonAnalysis (pandas/matplotlib on EPESE data from Marottoli 1997) → matplotlib survival plot output.

"Draft LaTeX review on visual predictors with citations"

Synthesis Agent → gap detection → Writing Agent → latexEditText → latexSyncCitations (Owsley 1999/2001) → latexCompile → PDF review.

"Find GitHub repos analyzing older driver longitudinal data"

Research Agent → paperExtractUrls (Edwards 2009) → paperFindGithubRepo → githubRepoInspect → code for mobility trajectory models.

Automated Workflows

Deep Research workflow runs systematic review: searchPapers (50+ on cessation predictors) → citationGraph → GRADE all → structured report on vision vs. cognitive factors. DeepScan applies 7-step analysis with CoVe checkpoints on Owsley cohorts. Theorizer generates mobility loss theory from Marottoli and Edwards trajectories.

Try Doxa for Predictors of Driving Cessation Research

Frequently Asked Questions

What defines predictors of driving cessation?

Demographic, health, visual impairment, and cognitive decline factors from longitudinal data that precipitate stopping driving (Marottoli et al., 1997).

What are key methods used?

Prospective cohorts like New Haven EPESE track cessation events; logistic regression models hazard ratios for vision (Owsley et al., 1999) and dementia (Iverson et al., 2010).

What are seminal papers?

Marottoli et al. (1997, 643 citations) on depression post-cessation; Owsley et al. (1999, 565 citations) on cataracts; Edwards et al. (2009, 185 citations) on mortality.

What open problems exist?

Causal models for heterogeneous effects; longer-term trajectories beyond 3 years (Edwards et al., 2009); interventions validated post-Dickerson et al. (2007) agenda.