PapersFlow Research Brief
Agricultural risk and resilience
Research Guide
What is Agricultural risk and resilience?
Agricultural risk and resilience refers to the study of risk management, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity in agricultural systems, particularly addressing impacts of weather shocks, social networks, and insurance on poverty, food security, and household welfare in rural economies.
This field encompasses 61,499 works focused on vulnerability and resilience in agriculture. Research examines how weather shocks and extreme weather disasters affect global crop production and food security. Studies prioritize adaptation needs for food security in vulnerable regions based on climate projections.
Topic Hierarchy
Research Sub-Topics
Weather Shocks and Crop Yield Variability
This sub-topic quantifies impacts of droughts, floods, and heatwaves on staple crop production using econometric models and satellite data. Researchers estimate yield losses and adaptation thresholds in vulnerable regions.
Agricultural Insurance and Risk Management
This sub-topic evaluates index-based insurance uptake, moral hazard, and welfare impacts on smallholder farmers. Researchers design contracts and assess subsidies for scaling weather risk transfer.
Social Networks in Agricultural Risk Sharing
This sub-topic analyzes informal risk pooling through kinship, community ties, and remittances buffering income shocks. Researchers model network structures and efficiency using household panel data.
Household Vulnerability to Agricultural Shocks
This sub-topic measures vulnerability as exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity using asset-based indices. Researchers track poverty traps and recovery dynamics post-shock.
Climate Change Adaptation for Food Security
This sub-topic evaluates diversified farming, agroforestry, and technology adoption enhancing resilience to future climate scenarios. Researchers prioritize interventions via cost-benefit analysis for 2030 food systems.
Why It Matters
Agricultural risk and resilience directly influence global food security and rural economies, where agriculture often accounts for at least 40 percent of GDP in poor countries, as noted in "World development report, 2008: agriculture for development" (2008). Extreme weather disasters reduce global crop production, with Lesk et al. (2016) in "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production" quantifying these losses and their implications for food availability. Wheeler and von Braun (2013) in "Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security" highlight how climate change disrupts crop productivity patterns, threatening whole food systems. Lobell et al. (2008) in "Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030" identify specific crops and 12 food-insecure regions for targeted investments using statistical models and projections, enabling prioritized adaptation to mitigate poverty and enhance household welfare.
Reading Guide
Where to Start
"Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production" by Lesk et al. (2016) is the starting point for beginners, as it provides empirical evidence on weather shocks' direct impacts on crops, central to understanding agricultural risks.
Key Papers Explained
Lesk et al. (2016) in "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production" quantifies weather impacts, building on Wheeler and von Braun (2013) in "Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security" which outlines broader productivity threats. Lobell et al. (2008) in "Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030" extends this by prioritizing adaptations in specific regions, informed by foundational risk work like Holt and Laury (2002) in "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects" and Pratt (1964) in "Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large." "World development report, 2008: agriculture for development" (2008) contextualizes these for development policy.
Paper Timeline
Most-cited paper highlighted in red. Papers ordered chronologically.
Advanced Directions
Current research builds on climate adaptation priorities from Lobell et al. (2008), focusing on vulnerability in food-insecure regions amid ongoing weather shocks as detailed by Lesk et al. (2016). No recent preprints or news coverage indicate persistent reliance on established models for risk management and resilience strategies.
Papers at a Glance
| # | Paper | Year | Venue | Citations | Open Access |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects | 2002 | American Economic Review | 5.6K | ✕ |
| 2 | Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large | 1964 | Econometrica | 4.9K | ✕ |
| 3 | Perceived stress in a probability sample of the United States | 1988 | — | 3.8K | ✕ |
| 4 | The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the Epidemiology of ... | 2005 | Milbank Quarterly | 3.8K | ✓ |
| 5 | Commodities and Capabilities | 1987 | Canadian Journal of Ec... | 3.8K | ✕ |
| 6 | Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production | 2016 | Nature | 3.5K | ✓ |
| 7 | World development report, 2008: agriculture for development | 2008 | Choice Reviews Online | 3.5K | ✓ |
| 8 | Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security | 2013 | Science | 3.2K | ✕ |
| 9 | Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security... | 2008 | Science | 3.0K | ✕ |
| 10 | Estimating Wealth Effects without Expenditure Data-or Tears: A... | 2001 | Demography | 3.0K | ✕ |
Frequently Asked Questions
What role does risk aversion play in agricultural decision-making?
Holt and Laury (2002) in "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects" use paired lottery choices to measure risk aversion, showing most subjects are risk averse with normal payoffs. This approach infers degrees of risk aversion relevant to farmers facing uncertain outcomes like weather shocks. Scaling payoffs reveals shifts in behavior applicable to high-stakes agricultural risks.
How do extreme weather disasters impact global crop production?
Lesk et al. (2016) in "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production" demonstrate that extreme weather events significantly reduce crop yields worldwide. These disasters exacerbate vulnerability in agricultural systems dependent on stable climates. The findings underscore the need for resilience strategies in food production.
What are the projected climate change impacts on food security?
Wheeler and von Braun (2013) in "Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security" identify a global pattern of reduced crop productivity due to climate change. This threatens food availability and system stability, potentially interrupting progress toward ending hunger. Adaptation measures are essential to safeguard agricultural outputs.
How can adaptation priorities be set for food security by 2030?
Lobell et al. (2008) in "Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030" analyze climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions using statistical models. They recommend investments favoring specific crops and areas based on projections. This approach guides efficient resource allocation for resilience.
Why is agriculture critical for development in poor countries?
"World development report, 2008: agriculture for development" (2008) states that agriculture comprises at least 40 percent of GDP in many poor countries amid rising food demand and resource scarcity. Climate change further vulnerabilities natural resources sustaining agriculture. Strengthening resilience supports poverty reduction and food security.
What foundational concepts underpin agricultural vulnerability?
Pratt (1964) in "Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large" establishes theoretical foundations for risk aversion behaviors across payoff scales. These concepts apply to agricultural households navigating small daily risks and large shocks like droughts. Understanding this informs resilience-building interventions.
Open Research Questions
- ? How can social networks quantitatively enhance household resilience to weather shocks in rural economies?
- ? What insurance mechanisms most effectively reduce poverty traps caused by agricultural risks?
- ? Which crop-region combinations require urgent adaptation investments under varying climate projections?
- ? How do interactions between risk aversion and incentive structures influence farmer adoption of resilient practices?
- ? What metrics best measure long-term food security outcomes from resilience interventions?
Recent Trends
The field maintains 61,499 works with no specified 5-year growth rate available.
Recent emphasis remains on climate-driven risks, as evidenced by high citations to Lesk et al. on extreme weather impacts and Wheeler and von Braun (2013) on food security threats.
2016No new preprints or news in the last 12 months suggest steady incorporation of these into broader agricultural vulnerability studies.
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